Trove API Console

          {
  "id" : "41697877",
  "url" : "https://api.trove.nla.gov.au/v3/newspaper/41697877",
  "identifier" : "https://nla.gov.au/nla.news-article41697877",
  "heading" : "WRAGGE AND WEATHER CYCLES.",
  "category" : "Article",
  "title" : {
    "id" : "101",
    "title" : "Western Mail (Perth, WA : 1885 - 1954)"
  },
  "date" : "1922-11-23",
  "page" : "4",
  "pageSequence" : "4",
  "troveUrl" : "https://nla.gov.au/nla.news-article41697877",
  "trovePageUrl" : "https://nla.gov.au/nla.news-page3522839",
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  "articleText" : "<p><span>  WRAGGE  ÁNP  WEATHER  CYCLES.</span></p> <p><span>  \"W.E.H.,\"  Kendenup,  writes:-Your</span><span>    interesting  article  in  last    \"Mail\"  re</span></p> <p><span>  Clement  Wragge  and  forecasts,  is</span><span>  much  to  the  point.  I  once  heard</span><span>    him  lecture,  he  seemed  very  eccen</span></p> <p><span>  tric,  but  there  was  a  strain  of  com-</span><span>  mon  sense  running  through  his  lec-</span><span>  ture,  as  he  continually  reminded</span></p> <p><span>  his  hearers  that  they  should  con-</span><span>    serve  water  for  dry  periods,  and</span></p> <p><span>  concluded  his  address  with  the</span><span>  words,  \"Dam!  Dam!!  Dam!!!</span></p> <p><span>  Some  years  ago  I  read  an  article  on</span><span>    weather  records  for,  I  think,  New</span></p> <p><span>  South  Wales.  The  writer  had  an-</span><span>  alysed  the  records  as  far  back  as</span><span>  they  went,  and  his  conclusions  were</span><span>  that  all  years  ending  in  2  and  8</span><span>  were  more  or  less  dry.  .  My  'own</span><span>  experience  goes  back  lo    1888,  and</span></p> <p><span>  1  can  corroborate  his  statement.  ln</span><span>  '88  1  was  on  the  Darling,  and  we</span><span>  had  1  inch  and  4  points  of  rain  for</span><span>    the  year;  '92  was  dry,  '98  dry,  1902</span></p> <p><span>  dry,  1908  dry;    I  don't  remember</span><span>  about  1912.  but  1918  was  dry,  and</span><span>  1922  is  a  disastrous  year  in  parts</span><span>  of  New  South  Wales  and  Queens-</span><span>  land.  Can  you  tell  us  how  West-</span><span>  ern  Australian  records  compare</span><span>  with  those  dates?  lt  would  be  in-</span><span>  teresting  to  know.</span></p> <p><span>  The  above  letter  is  very  Interesting,</span><span>  and  I  am  pleased  to  see  that  \"W.E.H.\"</span><span>  supports  me,  and  emphasises  the  point</span><span>  I  desired  to  impress  upon  readers,  viz.,</span><span>  while  it  would  be  very  foolish  for  a</span><span>  farmer  to  try  and  farm  according  to  the</span><span>  predictions  of  Mr.  Wragge,  all  will  be</span><span>  acting  wisely  by  attending  to  his  sound</span><span>  advice  in  regard  to  thc  conservation  of</span><span>  fodder  and  moisture.  The  wise  man</span><span>  many,  many  centuries  ago  said  in  effect:</span><span>  **He  that,  observeth  the  wind  shall  not</span><span>  sow.  and  he  that  regardeth  the  clouds</span><span>  shall  not  reap''  (Eccles.  11,  iv.).  He  that</span><span>  regardeth.  Mr.  Wragge's  prediction  will</span><span>  be  in  a  simliar  position;  but  he  that</span><span>  regardeth  his  advice  to  Dam!  Dam!'.</span><span>  Dam!!.!  and  to  conserve  fodder  will  sow</span><span>  and  reap  consistently  year  by  year,  in</span><span>  average  years,  and  will  not  fear  an  oc-</span><span>  casional  dry  season.</span></p> <p><span>  About  Cycles.</span></p> <p><span>  Wi  til  regard  to  the  years  ending  in  2</span><span>  and  8,  I  have  looked  .up  tho  records  since</span><span>  1878  for  Perth,  arid  for  Northampton</span><span>  since  1S82.  There  is  nothing  in  the</span><span>  records  to  indicate  that,  any  such  rule  as</span><span>  that  mentioned  by  \"W.E.H.\"  will  hold.</span><span>  The  years  ending  in  2  und  S  do  not  iu</span><span>  1  elude  any  of  the  bad  years.  Taking</span></p> <p><span>  Perth,  three  ol'  tho  years  are  consider-</span><span>  ably  over  the  average,  and  six  are</span><span>  slightly  under,  but  they  aro  not  bad</span><span>  years.  The  same  general  remark</span><span>  holds  with  regard  to  Northampton.</span></p> <p><span>  I  may  herc  mention  that  when  1  lived</span><span>  in  Adelaide.  I  very  frequently  met  my</span><span>  friend  Mr.  Griffiths,  the  State  Meteorolo-</span><span>  gist,  who  was  afterwards  the  Chief  of</span><span>  Staff  at  the  Federal  Weather  Bureau.</span><span>  At  one  time  Mr.  Bussell,  astronomer</span><span>  in  charge'  of  the  'Sydney  Observatory,</span><span>  published  a  paper  hi  whick  he  en-</span><span>  deavoured  to  show  that,  the  W'cather  of</span><span>  Now  South  Wales  was  dominated  by  a</span><span>  cycle  of,  1  think,  13  years.  Mr.  Grif-</span><span>  fiths  occupied  his  snare  time  for  a  con-</span><span>  siderable  period  tabulating  tho  rainfall</span><span>  figures-  for  South  Australia,  which  ex-</span><span>  tend  over  a  greater  period  than  auy  ot</span><span>  the  other  States.  He  arranged  them</span><span>  in  every  manner  ho  could  think  of,  but</span><span>  no  arrangement  indicated  the  existence</span><span>  of  a  definite  cyclo.  1  remember  his</span></p> <p><span>  saying  very  distinctly;  \"Thc  figures  given</span><span>  toy  Sir.  Russell  seem  to  be  conclusive,\"</span><span>  but  if  other  sets  of  stations  in  New</span><span>  South  Wales  be  taken,  different  results</span><span>  would  be  suggested,  and  it  looks  very</span><span>  much  as  though  Mr.  Russell  had  follow-</span><span>  ed  a  common  practice  of  forming  a</span><span>  theory  and  then  looking  for  records</span><span>  which  would  support  it.\"  With  regard</span><span>  to  Knuth  Australia,  Mr.  Griffiths  could</span><span>  obtain  no  evidence  of  the  existence  of</span><span>  a  definite  cycle,  either  -  of  7  years,  13</span><span>  years,  or  any  other  period.</span></p> <p><span>  I  have  on  my  shelves  a  book  called</span><span>  Egerson's  \"Weather  System  .  of  Sun</span><span>  '  Spot  Causality.\"  Mr.  Egerson  was  a</span><span>  member  of  the  staff  of  thc  Sydney  Ob-</span><span>  servatory,  and  endeavoured  to  show  how</span><span>  forecasting  may  be  done  for  periods  of.</span><span>  a  week,  for  several  months,  fer  a  few</span><span>  years,  and  for  a  series  of  years  iu  ad-</span><span>  vance,  and  he  speaks  of  cycles.  1  will</span><span>  not,  however,  go  further  into  this  mitt-</span><span>  ler  now  than  to  say  that,  while  looking</span><span>  at  (he  subject  from  an  unbiassed  point</span><span>  !  of  view,  I  have  come  to  the  conclusion</span><span>  j  that  no  one  has  definitely  proved  the  cx</span><span>  .  istence  of  any  definite  cycle.  At  the</span></p> <p><span>  same  time,  there  may  be,  and  probably</span><span>  is,  a  general  periodicity  in  regard  to  the</span><span>  seasons,  but  the  periods  arc  more  or</span><span>  less  irregular,  and  our  evidence  at  pre-</span><span>  sent  does  not  enable  us  to  go  further</span><span>  than  to  speak  in  very  general  terms.</span><span>  We  are  perfectly  safe  in  concluding</span><span>  that  after  a  scries  of  good  years  we  aro</span><span>  sure  to  get  some  bad  ones,  and  after</span><span>  the  bad  years  wc  are.  sure  to  get  good</span><span>  ones.  Tuuo  we  como  back  again  to  thc  one</span><span>  safe  rule  for  tho.  farmer,  that  he  should</span><span>  curry  on  his  work  for  average  condi-</span><span>  tions,  and  thou  lie  will  get  average,  re-</span><span>  sults.  If  ho  conserves  water  and  fod-</span><span>  der  ¡ti  (he  good  periods  he  will  havc_  a</span><span>  reserve  for  the  dry  periods,  and,  like</span><span>  Joseph,  ho  will  be  able  to  sell  his  re-</span><span>  serves  lo  his  loss,  thrifty  neighbours.</span></p> <p><span>  Fruit  '  Prices.</span></p> <p><span>  I  duly  received  (he  clipping  about-the</span><span>  orange  prices.  I  do  not  think  that  you</span><span>  should  attach  very  much  importance  to</span><span>  the  article  you  sent.  As  a  matter  of</span><span>  fact,  experience  in  different  markets  and</span><span>  different  places  contradict  ono  another</span><span>  very  considerably.  It  is  .only  a  little</span><span>  while  ago  that  1  read  aa  article  urging</span><span>  that  people  should  grow  Valencias,  be-</span><span>  cause  certain  shipments  of  those  had</span><span>  realised  higher  prices  than  Navels.</span><span>  Sometimos  it  is  one  way  and  sometimes</span><span>  tho  other.  With  regard  to  the  brown</span><span>  heart  in  the  apple.  1  think  the  trouble</span><span>  I  has  boen  duo  to  want  of  cave  on  the</span></p> <p><span>  part  of  tho  ship  engineers,  and  I  am  iu</span><span>  1  dined  to  think  (hat  the  trouble  xviii  be</span></p> <p><span>  largely  overcome  next  year.</span></p> "
}